A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
